Lula is walking into a meeting with Trump as a weakened leader—and this Dosimetria fiasco only makes it worse.
By Hotspotnews
Trump is no fan of Lula’s left-wing project, and he’s long backed Bolsonaro (his jailed ally) and the broader right-wing pushback against what he sees as politicized “revenge” justice over January 8. The fact that Congress just rammed through the Dosimetria law—over Lula’s veto—and Lula is now refusing to sign it himself, ducking responsibility and running to the STF, screams impotence. It’s the second humiliating congressional slap in days (after the historic rejection of his STF pick). Trump’s team notices power dynamics like this.
Current State of Lula-Trump Relations
Relations have thawed from the early tariff wars and pressure over Bolsonaro’s imprisonment, but they remain transactional at best. Trump lifted sanctions on Alexandre de Moraes, eased tariffs on Brazilian exports, and the two have held phone calls and side meetings (including one in Malaysia last year). Lula even planned a Washington visit earlier this year focused on trade, Venezuela, and Cuba. Publicly, Lula has criticized Trump sharply—calling out his foreign policy style as fear-based and “misguided” as recently as mid-April. But behind the scenes, pragmatism rules: Brazil needs U.S. market access, and Trump wants deals on critical minerals, tariffs, and regional influence.
How This Domestic Defeat Changes the Equation
This latest episode hands Trump (and U.S. conservatives) fresh evidence that Lula is losing his grip at home just months before Brazil’s October 2026 election. Bolsonaro’s allies are already framing it as Congress delivering justice while Lula obstructs. From the White House perspective, it reinforces the narrative that Lula’s government is brittle—exactly the kind of opening Trump has exploited before with tariff threats tied to Bolsonaro’s legal woes.
Lula’s team will try to spin it as “defending democracy” and shift blame to Alcolumbre and the courts, but that doesn’t play well in a bilateral summit. When Lula sits across from Trump, he’ll be the one with a fractured coalition, tanking legislative wins, and a tightening reelection race. Trump doesn’t need to say much; the optics alone signal weakness. Expect Lula to lean hard on economic arguments and “mutual respect” talking points while avoiding any direct clash over January 8 or Bolsonaro.
Bottom line: This isn’t just a Brazilian story anymore. It’s another data point showing Lula’s authority eroding at the exact moment he needs to project strength to a deal-making, America-First president who remembers who his real friends in Brasília are. The refusal to promulgate the law may buy Lula a little time domestically with his base, but internationally it makes him look smaller—and Trump knows how to capitalize on that.
