Lula’s Cowardly Denial: Refusing to Promulgate the Dosimetria Law Exposes His Crumbling Power and Dooms His 2026 Reelection Chances
By Hotspotnews
In a stunning display of political petulance and weakness, Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has once again refused to do his constitutional duty. After Congress decisively overrode his veto on the Dosimetria law—legislation that brings much-needed balance and fairness to the draconian sentences handed down for the January 8, 2023 events—Lula has dug in his heels. He will not sign it. He will not promulgate it. Instead, he is petulantly shifting the responsibility to Senate President Davi Alcolumbre, forcing the upper house leader to act within the mandatory 48-hour window or watch the law take effect anyway. This is not leadership. This is denial—pure, desperate, and politically suicidal.
The Dosimetria law is no radical amnesty; it is a measured correction to the excessive and politically motivated penalties imposed on hundreds of ordinary Brazilians who protested what they saw as a stolen election. Many were fathers, mothers, small business owners, and patriots exercising their right to demonstrate. The left-wing establishment, led by Lula and his Supreme Court allies, turned those protests into a pretext for a sweeping crackdown, jailing people for years on charges that often smacked of selective justice. Congress, reflecting the will of a center-right majority elected by the people, stepped up and overrode Lula’s veto with strong margins in both chambers. It was a clear rebuke: enough with the revenge politics.
Yet Lula’s response? Stonewalling. By refusing to finalize the promulgation himself, he reveals the depth of his hypocrisy and fear. He wants the public to believe he is still the defender of “democracy,” all while dodging the very democratic outcome Congress delivered. His government is already scrambling to file appeals before the Supreme Federal Court (STF), hoping activist judges will bail him out once again. This is the same Lula who lectures the world about institutions while undermining them at home. His denial is not principled; it is the act of a man who knows he is losing control and cannot stomach the optics of fairness toward his political opponents.
This episode is not an isolated blunder—it is the latest in a cascade of defeats that are accelerating Lula’s political freefall. Just days earlier, the Senate delivered a historic humiliation by rejecting his nominee for the STF, the first such rejection in over a century. Lula’s once-ironclad coalition with the Centrão is fracturing before our eyes. Lawmakers who once propped him up are now voting against him on key issues, signaling that even the pragmatic center smells weakness. Congress is no longer his rubber stamp; it is asserting the people’s will. And Lula’s refusal to promulgate the Dosimetria law only underscores how isolated and impotent he has become just five months before the October 2026 presidential election.
The real danger for Lula is now impossible to ignore: this stubborn denial is actively eroding whatever slim path to reelection he still imagines. Polling has shown the race tightening dramatically, with right-wing frontrunners like Senator Flávio Bolsonaro consolidating the patriotic vote that propelled his father to victory in 2018. Lula’s approval ratings hover in the low-to-mid 40s at best, dragged down by persistent economic pain, ballooning public debt, and a growing sense among moderates that his government is more interested in settling old scores than delivering results. Voters in the Northeast—once his unbreakable fortress—are showing signs of fatigue. Swing voters in the Southeast and South, already skeptical, will see this refusal as exactly what it is: an arrogant attempt to obstruct justice and cling to power at all costs.
Every day Lula delays and denies, the opposition gains fresh ammunition. Flávio Bolsonaro and other conservative leaders are already framing the story perfectly: “Lula wanted endless revenge against the Brazilian people. Congress said no. And now the old man won’t even sign the defeat he earned.” This narrative resonates because it is true. The right no longer needs to chase scandals; Lula is handing them daily proof that his era of dominance is over. His base may cheer the legal maneuvering, but the broader electorate—tired of polarization, economic stagnation, and institutional warfare—will punish the incumbent who looks increasingly out of touch and out of options.
Make no mistake: Lula’s refusal to promulgate the Dosimetria law is not a tactical masterstroke. It is a self-inflicted wound that exposes the fragility of his entire project. He campaigned in 2022 promising unity and governance; instead, he has delivered division and gridlock. With the economy still fragile and public disillusionment rising, this latest act of denial could be the tipping point. Brazilian voters have a long memory for weakness in their leaders. They rejected the left’s excesses before, and they are poised to do it again.
The clock is ticking toward October 2026. Lula can keep denying reality, appealing to friendly courts, and shifting blame. But the Brazilian people are watching. His denial is not just a refusal to sign a law—it is a refusal to accept the democratic verdict that his time at the helm is ending. The real danger is no longer hypothetical. For Lula da Silva, reelection is slipping away, and this stubborn, self-defeating stand may be the moment history records as the beginning of the end.