Dollar closes at R$ 5.77, in the 12th fall and the lowest value since November
American currency retreated with Trump less demanding and data on employment in the US. Market gives signs of “good mood”, says analyst
The spot dollar closed down 0.81%, to R$ 5, on Tuesday (4/2). This was the twelfth consecutive retreat of the American currency, which reached the lowest price since November 2024. In the trading floor, it was even rated at R$ 5.75, at 1:45 pm.
In the evaluation of Emerson Vieira Junior, responsible for the exchange table of Convexa Investimentos, two factors were decisive for the new devaluation of the dollar against the real.
There was, for example, a cooling in the tension around the fact, where the trade war that the President of the United States, Donald Trump, threatened to declare against Canada, Mexico and China – among other countries and economic blocs.
The Republican has already raised import tariffs for products from these three countries, but postponed the application of surcharges for one month for Canadians and Mexicans. He also said that he will talk to the President of China, Xi Jinping, on the subject, which may indicate some kind of negotiated solution to the problem.
Bargaining
That is why the assessment that Trump has used the threat of tariffs as an instrument of pressure to obtain advantages from countries in which the US has pending issues begins to consolidate in the market. Even if these obstacles have nothing to do with global trade issues.
To avoid the surcharge, for example, Mexicans promised to send 10,000 members of the National Guard to the US border to curb drug trafficking. Canadians confirmed the plan to invest $1.3 billion in the border between the two countries to combat organized crime, fentanyl smuggling (an opioid used as a pain medication) and money laundering.
“With continued advances and setbacks in threats, the market believes it has understood Trump’s modus operandi,” says Vieira Junior. “He was very aggressive at the start and then softened the tone. Now, the idea is that the international trade situation may not worsen as much as people initially expected and the behavior of the dollar reflects this analysis.”
Labor market
The second factor that contributed to the appreciation of the Real, notes the analyst, has to do with information about the labor market in the US, released on Tuesday.
Data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (Jolts) report showed that 7.6 million job vacancies were created in the American job market, during the month of December. Analysts expected 8 million. In November, the number had been 8.2 million. In other words, the opening of jobs is falling.
This, economists observe, is a sign of a cooling of the local economy, although it is not yet possible to accurately measure the real intensity. Still, with this downward movement in jobs, the possibility that interest rates will fall – or not rise again, grows.
This is good news for other markets, especially emerging ones – Brazil’s case. This is because high interest rates attract dollars to the American economy. A flow in this sense devalues the other currencies.
Good mood
Veira Junior notes that the Brazilian market has also been showing “good humor”. According to the analyst, this occurs when not so relevant news has a positive impact and helps reduce the dollar exchange rate. “That’s what happened with the data from the employment report in the United States,” he says. “The price of the American currency fell soon after the disclosure of the numbers, even if they were not so important.”
New stock market fall
The Brazilian Stock Exchange (B3) operated in decline on Tuesday afternoon (4/2). At 5 pm, Ibovespa, B3’s main index, recorded a decline of 0.44%, to 125,397 points. In the trading floor, the shares of Petrobras and Vale, which have great weight in the indicator, fell 1% and 0.40%, respectively.
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