March 29, 2025- Hotspotorlando News. The week brings lower approval numbers to Lula, reinforcing what we already knew. His ego is too large to see the inevitable political demise.
Approval Ratings: A Rollercoaster of Public Sentiment
Lula’s approval ratings have fluctuated significantly over the past two years, reflecting a polarized nation and mixed feelings about his leadership. When he started in 2023, polls like AtlasIntel pegged his approval at 52%, buoyed by optimism about his return and promises to reverse Bolsonaro-era policies. By late 2023, Datafolha showed 38% rating his government as “good” or “excellent,” with 30% disapproving.
Fast forward to February 2025, and that approval tanked to a record low of 24% (Datafolha), with disapproval spiking to 41%—the worst across his three terms. Yet, by March 2025, Genial/Quaest reported a slight rebound to 35%, though disapproval still edged higher at 40%. This volatility suggests a public wrestling with economic frustrations, political scandals, and unmet expectations rather than a steady endorsement or rejection.
What’s driving this? Inflation, especially food prices, has hit hard—think beef cuts like picanha, which Lula promised would return to Brazilian tables but remain elusive for many. Posts on X echo this discontent, with users mocking his suggestion to “not buy expensive goods” as out-of-touch. Meanwhile, his health struggles (brain surgery in December 2024) and a perceived disconnect in the digital age—where the right dominates social media—haven’t helped. Still, approval hasn’t fully collapsed, hinting at lingering goodwill from his past achievements or hope for future gains.
Accomplishments: Some Wins, But Are They Concrete?
Lula’s administration has notched some measurable successes, though whether they feel “concrete” depends on your yardstick. Here’s a rundown:
Economic Growth: Brazil’s GDP grew 2.9% in 2023 and an estimated 3.2–3.5% in 2024, outpacing initial forecasts (e.g., 0.78% expected in early 2023). Unemployment dropped to 6.1% by late 2024, the lowest in years, with over 2.7 million jobs created since 2023. The Bolsa Família program, expanded to reach 21 million families, has been credited with reducing poverty from 23.5% in 2022 to 21.8% in 2023. These are real numbers, but critics argue growth leans on commodity exports (e.g., to China) rather than structural reform, and job quality remains shaky—many are informal or low-wage.
– Social Programs: Lula revived signature initiatives like Bolsa Família (cash transfers tied to school attendance and vaccinations) and Mais Médicos (doctors to underserved areas). By mid-2024, 24 million people reportedly exited hunger, reversing Brazil’s return to the UN Hunger Map under Bolsonaro. Over 25 million free or subsidized prescriptions were distributed via Farmácia Popular. These efforts echo his 2003–2010 playbook, but scale and impact are debated—hunger stats rely on government claims, and entrenched inequality persists.
– Environmental Policy: Deforestation in the Amazon fell sharply—499 square kilometers in July 2023 versus 1,739 in July 2022—thanks to stricter enforcement and a beefed-up Environment Ministry under Marina Silva. Lula’s global pitch for climate leadership, including hosting COP30 in 2025, has restored Brazil’s green credentials post-Bolsonaro. Yet, critics note he’s dodged phasing out fossil fuels, and illegal logging hasn’t vanished.
-Legislative Wins: A tax reform in 2023 simplified Brazil’s messy VAT system, a decades-long goal hailed by markets. A new fiscal framework replaced Bolsonaro’s spending cap, aiming to balance growth and debt control. These are structural, but implementation lags, and public debt nears 90% of GDP, spooking investors.
The Flip Side: Stumbles and Stagnation
For every step forward, there’s a snag. Inflation ended 2024 at 4.8%, above the 3% target, prompting the Central Bank to hike the Selic rate to 13.25% (with a 15% peak eyed for mid-2025). This has choked investment and fueled public grumbling about prices. Lula’s clashes with the bank’s independence have rattled markets, and the real hit record lows against the dollar in December 2024. His coalition’s shaky congressional support—lacking the muscle of his first terms—has stalled deeper reforms, like spending cuts or a fake news bill to curb digital disinformation, which the right quashed.
Politically, the January 8, 2023, Brasilia riots by Bolsonaro supporters exposed security vulnerabilities and lingering divisions. Lula’s foreign policy—cozying up to Venezuela and Iran, equivocating on Ukraine—has alienated some evangelicals and moderates, dropping approval there from 49% to 28%. At home, corruption scandals (e.g., Petrobras echoes) and judicial clashes over budget powers haven’t faded, feeding perceptions of drift.
The Last Two Years: A Mixed Bag
So, what’s the last two years look like? Lula’s administration has stabilized some metrics—growth, jobs, poverty—and scored symbolic wins like tax reform and Amazon protection. These are concrete in data but feel abstract to many Brazilians facing high prices and patchy services. His approval reflects this tension: down from early highs, yet not in freefall. The right’s digital edge and Bolsonaro’s enduring pull (despite legal woes) keep Lula on his toes, while his analog style struggles to connect in a TikTok era.
Laiz Todrigues
Editor in Chief